iREIT Daily

Who’s Afraid of the Big, Bad Market Drop?

Brad Thomas

467 postsJuly 8, 2021

The markets are a little less than happy this morning, though that could easily change by the end of the day.

Historically speaking, when the 6:30 futures market shows the S&P 500 down 59.71 (1.37%)… the Dow down 488.00 (1.41%)… and the Nasdaq down 197.75 (1.34%)… that would mean there was no hope of green for the trading session.

But this is the “new norm,” at least for the time being. So who knows.

What we do know are a few of the concerns behind this decline, including resurrected inflation fears. Yesterday, there were headlines about how inflation was dying down. Twenty-four hours later, apparently it’s a problem again.

Welcome to the fickle, fickle Covid-19-driven markets.

This brings me to the second – and bigger – reason why they’re down. Because investors don’t actually seem bullish on the U.S. economy in the end. They’re bullish on U.S. government spending.

It’s hard to conclude anything else considering how today’s action is being blamed on yesterday’s mention by the Federal Reserve that it might start cutting down on its monthly bond purchases.

Then again, there’s always another way to look at the data, as MarketWatch writer Mark Hulbert proves. His “What the Stock Market’s ‘Black Swan’ Index Hitting an All-Time High Tells Us” might sound exceptionally alarming. He’ll admit that much, at least.

“In late June, the CBOE’s SKEW Index – aka, the ‘black swan’ index – hit an all-time high. That reading was more than 40% higher than its average since 1990, which is how far back data extend. In fact, the June reading was 20% higher even than the highest the SKEW reached during the U.S. stock market’s February-March 2020 waterfall decline.
“This new high certainly seems scary.”

“Yet,” he continues…

The World According to REITs

Hulbert isn’t “convinced that the SKEW’s high recent readings mean that more traders than usual are betting on a sharp decline for the U.S. stock marketing.” It’s actually possible, he says, that the exact opposite could be true.

“Notice… that there is more than one way for the SKEW Index to rise. One way, which is what most assume is the case when the index rises, would be for the permabears to become even more bearish. But the SKEW Index would also increase if the permabears didn’t alter their bearishness and the mainstream consensus became more bullish.
“There is some evidence suggesting that this latter possibility is happening now.”

He might be right. But even so, he doesn’t make the soundest argument for it since he asks readers to “imagine there are two groups of investors”: the permanently bearish and the “bullish” mainstream consensus.

As far as I saw, he never considers that perhaps the mainstream consensus isn’t as bullish as it once was.

My own regular readers know my thoughts about the markets being overvalued – and how I refuse to pay for something based on hype alone. That’s why I was so pleased to interview Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) the other day.

Now that company is a solid buy all things considered.

Elsewhere in the REIT world:

American Assets Trust (AAT) completed its purchase of Eastgate Office Park, a 280,000 square-foot, multi-tenant office campus in the Bellevue, Washington, area for $125 million.
Brixmor Property Group (BRX) saw Fitch affirm its BBB- long-term issuer default rating and stable outlook. The same applies to its operating partnership.
Iron Mountain (IRM) agreed to acquire a two-story, 20,000 square-meter colocation data center in Frankfurt, Germany, for £76 million.

Also, Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) clearly hasn’t recovered from its announcement yet. And I imagine that today’s negative sentiment in the larger markets isn’t going to help a bit.

(Source: The Daily REITBeat)

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

View all my Posts

Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

“The Upside to Inflation” and Other Missteps

What Comes Up Must Go… Where?

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT Mutual Fund

Symbol

Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund

AIGYX, AIAGX

American Century Real Estate Fund

REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX

Real Estate Securities Fund

MRESX

AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund

ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX

AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund

AFREX

Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund

AARIX, ARFCX

Baron Real Estate Fund

BREIX, BREFX

BlackRock Real Estate Securities

BIREX, BAREX, BCREX

Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund

BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX

CGM Realty Fund

CGMRX

West Loop Realty Fund

REIIX, REIAX, REICX

Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares

CSRIX

Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund

CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX

Cohen & Steers Realty Shares

CSRSX

Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund

CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX

Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund

CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX

Davis Real Estate Fund

RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX

Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II

DPRTX, DPRBX

Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio

DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX

DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio

DFREX

Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund

DAREX, DNREX, DCREX

DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund

RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX

DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund

REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX

Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund

EAREX, EIREX

EII Realty Securities Fund

EIIRX

Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund

FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX

Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund

FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX

Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund

FRIFX

Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio

FRESX

Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund

FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX

Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund

FREDX, FREFX

Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund

FSREX, FSRWX

Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund

KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX

Forward Real Estate Fund

FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX

Forward Select Income Fund

KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX

Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund

FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX

GMO Real Estate Fund

GMORX

Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund

GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX

Great-West Real Estate Fund

MXREX

Heitman REIT Fund

OARTX, OBRTX

ING Real Estate Fund

CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX

INVESCO Real Estate Fund

REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX

Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund

IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX

John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund

JIREX

Johnson Realty Fund

JRLTX

J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund

URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX

J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund

CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX

J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund

SUSIX

Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio

LREIX, LREOX

Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio

LRIIX, LRIOX

Manning & Napier Real Estate Series

MNRIX, MNREX

Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio

MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX

Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund

NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX

Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund

NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX

Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund

FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX

Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund

OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX

PHOCAS Real Estate Fund

PHREX

PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund

PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX

Pioneer Real Estate Shares

PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX

Principal Real Estate Securities Fund

PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX

ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund

REPIX

Prudential Select Real Estate Fund

SREAX

Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund

PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX

REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio

RREIX

REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund

HLRRX, HLPPX

Rydex Real Estate Fund

RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX

SA Real Estate Securities Fund

SAREX

SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund

SETAX, SEIRX

Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund

SOAAX

SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund

SSREX

Stratton Real Estate Fund

STMDX

T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund

TRREX, PAREX

TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund

TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX

Vanguard REIT Index Fund

VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX

Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund

PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT ETF

Symbol

Flex Shares

ASET

Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US

DRW

S&P 500 Equal Weight

EWRE

iShares FTSE Industrial/Office

FNIO

MSCI Real Estate Index

FREL

S&P REIT Index

FRI

First Trust S&P REIT

FRI

iShares Real Estate 50

FTY

Flexshares Global

GQRE

iShares Cohen & Streers

ICF

iShares International Developed RE

IFGL

iShares US RE

IYR

Premium Yield Equity REIT

KBWY

ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage

MORL

Market Vector Mortgage

MORT

iShares Global REIT

REET

iShares FTSE Mortgage

REM

iShares Residential

REZ

IQ US Real Estate Small Cap

ROOF

iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail

RTL

DOW Jones Global RE

RWO

SPDR Dow Jones

RWR

Schwab US REIT

SCHH

Super Dividend REIT

SRET

ProShares Ultra RE

URE

Vanguard REIT

VNQ

Vanguard Global ex-US

VNQI

iShares International Developed

WPS

Wilshire US REIT

WREI

Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE

SRVR

Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE

INDS

Pacer Benchmark Retail RE

RTL

Hoya Capital Housing

HOMZ

NetLease Corporate RE

NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

Who’s Afraid of the Big, Bad Market Drop?

Brad Thomas

467 postsJuly 8, 2021

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Who’s Afraid of the Big, Bad Market Drop?

467 postsJuly 8, 2021

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