iREIT Daily

Oil, Natural Gas, and Food Prices Are All Headed Higher

Brad Thomas

467 postsMarch 8, 2022

Normally, after stock-market price action like we saw yesterday, I’d lead with that. But all things considered, I’m going to begin instead with crude oil…

And how it rose another $4, or 3.46%, between Friday’s and Monday’s close. Moreover, it will likely move higher again today. Probably by several percentage points again.

For the record, I do realize the last time I made such a bold prediction (that time about stocks), I was ultimately proven excessively inaccurate. And who knows, that might be the case again today.

I would welcome being wrong here too. But with the news being what it’s been and continues to be…

Well, I rest my case until proven otherwise.

Reports (or rumors?) are out this morning that the Biden administration will cut the country off from Russia oil after all. So any news (or non-news) on that will continue to affect oil prices.

So will U.S. officials’ in-person discussions with Venezuela about easing U.S. sanctions against its oil imports. And Axios reported yesterday that the White House could also be considering a trip to Saudi Arabia for the same reasons – with this admitted caveat from the White House:

A White House spokesperson told Axios: “We don’t have any international travel to announce at this time, and a lot of this is premature speculation.”

What is a stated fact, however, are these details from Fox Business:

Brazil is searching for new fertilizer suppliers as the war in Ukraine threatens to cut off shipments to one of the world’s breadbaskets, with potential ripple effects on already high global food inflation.

Why? Because “the Russian trade ministry has called for a broad suspension of fertilizer exports, state news agency TASS reported Friday.” And Brazil is an enormous global supplier of such things as coffee, soybeans, and sugar…

More Non-REIT News to Know About

There’s an oil component to that story too. Or rather an intense energy link since:

Before the Ukraine conflict, farmers across the world were struggling to buy enough fertilizers, some of which more than doubled in price last year. Higher natural-gas prices hampered production of the ammonia needed for nitrogen fertilizers, while power outages at Chinese fertilizer plants and Hurricane Ida in the U.S. curtailed global production.

So the ongoing war just adds “fuel” to an already raging fire. Very convoluted fuel at that.

Yahoo Finance’s Morning Brief explains that Wall Street’s “over-arching mood” is “one of outright confusion.” And Editor-at-Large Brian Sozzi adds:

I had one trader tell me he has been shorting oil in recent sessions, which by his own admission hasn’t worked well as prices have surged to nearly $120 a barrel (and maybe soon, $150).
Another person remarked… they are still long bank stocks on expectations of higher yields and rising interest rates. Banks have been crushed (KBW bank ETD down 5%; JPMorgan down 9%) post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as those in the know reason the financial system will soon… be stressed due to the West’s sanctions on Russia.

Do you know what else is down these days? And by “these days” I mean the last six months?

That would be Meta Platforms/Facebook (FB). It slid another $12.59 yesterday, or 6.29% to $187.47 – a multiyear low. That obviously contributed to the Nasdaq formally entering a bear market, now down 20%+ from its record high mere months ago.

Speaking of which, yesterday’s major index included the:

S&P 500 falling 127.78 points (2.95%)
Dow falling 797.42 points (2.37%)
Nasdaq falling 482.48 points (3.62%
Russell 2000 falling 49.57 points (2.48%).

Meanwhile, gold rose $33.50, or 1.70%.

The World According to REITs

Here’s a bit of good news I can give as we move toward real estate investment trust (REIT) specific reporting…

Yesterday, we heard The Batman movie earned $128.5 million at the box office, making it another post-Covid success story. In fact, it’s a success story by even pre-Covid metrics, since this makes for the fifth-largest March opening ever.

It’s further proof that people really are getting into the swing of the “old normal” again. It isn’t just a craving at this point. It’s a trend that I look forward to continue capitalizing on through REITs.

Speaking of such:

Gladstone Commercial (GOOD) renewed and expanded its contract with Bosch Security Systems at a Minneapolis-area, Minnesota, office property. The new agreement covers 73,960 square feet of space through July 31, 2028. The company also renewed a lease in the same building for 5,630 square feet through January 31, 2024.
Realty Income (O) saw Moody’s affirm its existing ratings, including its A3 senior unsecured assessment. Its outlook is stable.
Parks Hotels & Resorts (PK) saw Moody’s affirm Park Intermedia Holdings’ B1 corporate family and senior secured ratings. The agency also revised its outlook from negative to stable.

Stable sounds pretty good these days considering everything. And when you have a full list of REITs that actually went up in price despite most everything else tanking?

Well, it’s hardly the only thing we want to be paying attention to. But it still is at least a nice sight for potentially sore eyes.

(Source: The Daily REITBeat)

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

View all my Posts

Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

Positive Spins and Russian Realities

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

Oil, Natural Gas, and Food Prices Are All Headed Higher

Brad Thomas

467 postsMarch 8, 2022

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467 postsMarch 8, 2022

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