iREIT Daily

Black Swans vs. Black Birds

Brad Thomas

467 postsAugust 24, 2021

I’ve talked about black swans in previous articles. But after seeing a Fox Business headline titled “Housing Market Black Swan Bubbling,” I find myself rethinking the term.

We tend to define it as an event that we didn’t predict. Something we didn’t calculate for no matter how many scenarios we ran.

And that’s not necessarily an inaccurate definition. It’s just not necessarily the fullest one.

You see, just because we didn’t predict something or calculate for it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have.

(Aye. And there’s the rub.)

It’s not a bird’s fault if we miss the obvious because we’re so fixated on some other factor or factors. It’s our own for fixating in the first place.

This isn’t meant to say we should be able to predict everything. Hardly.

I might not be “obsessed” like my colleague Williams Equity Research about evaluating past decisions by past knowledge – instead of judging it by hindsight. But I do agree it’s unfair and unhelpful to condemn individuals or companies for a lack of supernatural precognition.

Again, I’m simply saying that we need to be aware of our surroundings. In which case, here are two things that simply weren’t black swans:

The dot.com crash of 2000. Investors should have known that companies need more than hype to make sustainable money.
The housing market crash of 2008. Investors (myself included) should have known that home prices couldn’t skyrocket for forever. And we should have been much more knowledgeable about what was keeping those investments up in the first place.

In the same way – with all due respect to the “Black Swan” Fox Business writer – I have to maintain that he’s misusing the term concerning today’s housing market.

The World According to REITs

The “Black Swan” article begins with:

“The euphoria in the U.S. housing market may be flashing a danger signal. And lofty home values could be at risk of a sharp drop.
Record low interest rates, historically tight inventories, and the Covid-19 pandemic pulling forward the flight from city centers to the suburbs have sparked an unprecedented rise in U.S. home prices.
“The ‘Black Swan’ is the inevitable collapse in U.S. home prices – they are in the stratosphere benchmarked against all the fundamental factors that drive valuations,” wrote David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Rosenberg Research.

But if it’s so easily recognized, then it’s not a black swan. Only a potential or even probable disaster waiting to strike.

In the same way, we want to be knowledgeable about good things waiting to strike. And since both goals require paying attention to the little details, here are your three REIT updates for the day:

Monmouth Real Estate Investment (MNR) says its board of directors once again voted unanimously to go forward concerning its pending merger with Equity Commonwealth (EQR).
Landmark Infrastructure Partners (LMRK) entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by the private Landmark Dividend LLC.
Gladstone Commercial (GOOD) bought an 81,760 square-foot industrial facility in Peru, Illinois, for $4.7 million. The 4.1-acre property was purchased with a 7.6% cap rate in a sale-leaseback transaction with a 15-year triple-net term.

There were several other announcements today from other companies, as Intelligent REIT Daily subscribers know very well.

(Source: The Daily REITBeat)

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

View all my Posts

Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

Q&A and M&A

Dividend Growth Stock of the Week: Sempra

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT Mutual Fund

Symbol

Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund

AIGYX, AIAGX

American Century Real Estate Fund

REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX

Real Estate Securities Fund

MRESX

AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund

ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX

AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund

AFREX

Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund

AARIX, ARFCX

Baron Real Estate Fund

BREIX, BREFX

BlackRock Real Estate Securities

BIREX, BAREX, BCREX

Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund

BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX

CGM Realty Fund

CGMRX

West Loop Realty Fund

REIIX, REIAX, REICX

Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares

CSRIX

Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund

CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX

Cohen & Steers Realty Shares

CSRSX

Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund

CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX

Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund

CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX

Davis Real Estate Fund

RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX

Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II

DPRTX, DPRBX

Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio

DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX

DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio

DFREX

Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund

DAREX, DNREX, DCREX

DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund

RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX

DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund

REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX

Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund

EAREX, EIREX

EII Realty Securities Fund

EIIRX

Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund

FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX

Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund

FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX

Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund

FRIFX

Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio

FRESX

Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund

FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX

Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund

FREDX, FREFX

Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund

FSREX, FSRWX

Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund

KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX

Forward Real Estate Fund

FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX

Forward Select Income Fund

KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX

Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund

FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX

GMO Real Estate Fund

GMORX

Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund

GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX

Great-West Real Estate Fund

MXREX

Heitman REIT Fund

OARTX, OBRTX

ING Real Estate Fund

CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX

INVESCO Real Estate Fund

REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX

Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund

IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX

John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund

JIREX

Johnson Realty Fund

JRLTX

J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund

URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX

J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund

CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX

J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund

SUSIX

Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio

LREIX, LREOX

Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio

LRIIX, LRIOX

Manning & Napier Real Estate Series

MNRIX, MNREX

Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio

MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX

Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund

NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX

Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund

NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX

Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund

FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX

Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund

OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX

PHOCAS Real Estate Fund

PHREX

PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund

PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX

Pioneer Real Estate Shares

PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX

Principal Real Estate Securities Fund

PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX

ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund

REPIX

Prudential Select Real Estate Fund

SREAX

Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund

PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX

REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio

RREIX

REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund

HLRRX, HLPPX

Rydex Real Estate Fund

RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX

SA Real Estate Securities Fund

SAREX

SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund

SETAX, SEIRX

Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund

SOAAX

SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund

SSREX

Stratton Real Estate Fund

STMDX

T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund

TRREX, PAREX

TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund

TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX

Vanguard REIT Index Fund

VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX

Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund

PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT ETF

Symbol

Flex Shares

ASET

Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US

DRW

S&P 500 Equal Weight

EWRE

iShares FTSE Industrial/Office

FNIO

MSCI Real Estate Index

FREL

S&P REIT Index

FRI

First Trust S&P REIT

FRI

iShares Real Estate 50

FTY

Flexshares Global

GQRE

iShares Cohen & Streers

ICF

iShares International Developed RE

IFGL

iShares US RE

IYR

Premium Yield Equity REIT

KBWY

ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage

MORL

Market Vector Mortgage

MORT

iShares Global REIT

REET

iShares FTSE Mortgage

REM

iShares Residential

REZ

IQ US Real Estate Small Cap

ROOF

iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail

RTL

DOW Jones Global RE

RWO

SPDR Dow Jones

RWR

Schwab US REIT

SCHH

Super Dividend REIT

SRET

ProShares Ultra RE

URE

Vanguard REIT

VNQ

Vanguard Global ex-US

VNQI

iShares International Developed

WPS

Wilshire US REIT

WREI

Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE

SRVR

Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE

INDS

Pacer Benchmark Retail RE

RTL

Hoya Capital Housing

HOMZ

NetLease Corporate RE

NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

Black Swans vs. Black Birds

Brad Thomas

467 postsAugust 24, 2021

Featured Articles

The Great Housing Market Migration Is VERY Interesting

Let Dividends Help You Deal With Disappointment In The Stock Market

Amazon Wants to Ask What Ails You

Wall Street’s Workforce Crisis Should Be Taken Seriously

Santa Claus Has Left the Building

Black Swans vs. Black Birds

467 postsAugust 24, 2021

REIT Mutual Funds

REIT ETFs

Not All Dividends Are the Same