iREIT Daily

Afghanistan Falls Hard

Brad Thomas

467 postsAugust 16, 2021

The big news of the day is what happened in Afghanistan. The Taliban now occupy the presidential palace in the capital city of Kabul after President Ashraf Ghani fled. And they’ve declared victory all around.

Long War Journal estimates that the terrorist group now controls or asserts heavy influence over almost 90% of the country. So victory seems like the right word for them to use.

Back on July 8, CNN reported that:

… Joe Biden delivered a vehement defense… of his decision to end the war in Afghanistan, insisting no amount of sustained American presence there could resolve the country’s own intractable problems.

And he might very well be correct there. Let’s face it: We’ve been there a very, very long time.

I’d even say that the details of yesterday’s disaster proved him correct on that count. What he was infinitely wrong about was when he said a Taliban takeover was “not inevitable.”

He also denounced comparisons to the Vietnam War, saying that the two enemy armies weren’t even remotely equal “in terms of capability.”

There’s going to be no circumstance where you are going to see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable.

Yet that’s precisely what happened on Sunday morning.

Obviously, there are enormous personal and national implications for the tens of millions of people in Afghanistan. And we’re going to have to wait and see what this means on the world stage.

But as we wait for more news to come out, we’re also allowed to ask how it will affect stocks. If we’re posing that question to MarketWatch, it’s answer is blunt:

“We just don’t know yet.”

Other Bad News on the Global Level

In “What the Afghan Government’s Collapse Might Mean for the U.S. Stock Market,” MarketWatch writes that:

Historically, military conflict doesn’t always have an impact on stocks. And war’s influence, if any, on investors’ psyches isn’t always clear-cut. The context and economic and market environments are often a bigger driver.

Written yesterday, it acknowledged that the major indices – each at extreme highs regardless – were all seeing their futures down some. And that was holding true this morning too.

But that could just as easily be because of two other recent reports. For one thing, the University of Michigan revealed on Friday that consumer sentiment may have dropped dramatically.

Yahoo News reports that this preliminary reading showed an 11-point drop to 70.2 this month. That’s:

“… the lowest reading since the pandemic started and the overall lowest level for the series since 2011. This decline was one of the largest on record for the index, which dates back over 50 years.”

Clearly, that’s not the most positive news to set up Tuesday’s reveal of July’s retail sales report.

Speaking of such, a similar report on the Chinese side of the oceanic aisle is already out. And they definitely missed forecasts. Moreover, analysts believe the retail situation over there can and will get worse from here as Covid-19 related restrictions come back into play.

Honestly, if I had to bet, I’d say today’s drop is all based on China. Though who knows. The way the markets are reacting to anything these days doesn’t always make much sense.

And, no, I’m still not predicting when they will again. That’s a market-timing kind of thing to do.

And we want to be focused on the fundamentals.

The World According to REITs

That’s one of the reasons why I appreciate real estate investment trusts (REITs) so much: because they usually do make sense.

Being more slow-and-steady assets, they’re less prone to hype than the more market-driving names other investors obsess over. Therefore, they’re more predictable.

My team and I might not always agree with an individual REIT’s actions. But at least we can understand them…

And do a pretty good job at predicting where they will lead.

Admittedly, we don’t have much REIT news to share this morning. But that isn’t at all unusual as earnings season concludes.

Here are your three pieces nonetheless:

Apartment Investment and Management (AIV) reported Q2 earnings, with net operating income up 4% from Q1-21 and 0.7% year-over-year. It leased more than 200 homes, while revenue from its operating properties was up 2.3% from Q2-20.
Columbia Property Trust (CXP) saw Moody’s downgrade it from Baa2 to Baa3 on Friday. The same went for its operating subsidiary, Columbia Property Trust OP, L.P., complete with a negative outlook.
Terreno Realty (TRNO) signed a lease for 44,000 square feet in Brooklyn, New York, with the larger city’s biggest bike share provider. The lease will begin next month and end in June 2029.

As usual then, we provide last week’s biggest winners and losers. And, sadly, yes, Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) made the latter yet again.

I don’t think I need to tell you not to touch it, but just in case… give the following graphic a good, hard look. This is nothing you want a part of right now.

(Source: The Daily REITBeat)

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

View all my Posts

Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

Dividend Growth Stock of the Week: Amgen

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

Afghanistan Falls Hard

Brad Thomas

467 postsAugust 16, 2021

Featured Articles

The Great Housing Market Migration Is VERY Interesting

Let Dividends Help You Deal With Disappointment In The Stock Market

Amazon Wants to Ask What Ails You

Wall Street’s Workforce Crisis Should Be Taken Seriously

Santa Claus Has Left the Building

Afghanistan Falls Hard

467 postsAugust 16, 2021

REIT Mutual Funds

REIT ETFs

Not All Dividends Are the Same