iREIT Daily

The California/New York and Bubble Debates Continue

Brad Thomas

467 postsApril 7, 2021

Another day, another professional opinion about whether we’re in a bubble or not. Another report about California and New York – whether positive or negative.

Maybe our media members simply know what we’re most likely to click on? Or perhaps there’s really just this much disagreement out there?

Regardless, here’s your “breaking news” for the morning – which may or may not be helpful.

When Goldman Sachs started out the week saying we’re not anywhere close to seeing a “full-fledged bubble” and therefore not anywhere close to seeing any such thing burst, that could have been it.

End of story. The experts have spoken.

Goldman Sachs is, after all, a very big company with very large amounts of money to spend on research on this exact kind of topic.

Then again, so is Deutsche Bank, which also just made the news. Yahoo Finance writes:

“Nothing has been able to shake the new bull market in recent weeks – not a still-elevated 10-year Treasury yield or threats of higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations by the Biden administration.
“But the one thing that has powered the S&P 500 beyond a record 4,000 – data that indicates a strong post-Covid-19 economic recovery is rapidly building – may turn out to ruin the rally. And it could play out within three months, warns widely followed Deutsche Bank Chief Strategist Binky Chadha.
“‘Very near-term, we expect equities to continue to be well-supported by the acceleration in macro growth and see buying by systematic strategies and buybacks driving a grind higher. But we expect a significant consolidation (-6% to -10%) as growth peaks over the next three months,’ Chadha wrote in a new research note on Tuesday.”

So I guess that the “science” isn’t so settled after all.

Meanwhile, Fox Business reports that “Relocations from San Francisco to Texas [and] Florida jumped between 32% and 46% in 2020.” Though – in another he-loves-me-he-loves-me-not move – its byline adds, “Despite migratory shifts in 2020, some people may move back to the cities they left once the pandemic is over.”

Also, I do have to point out how it’s not talking about millions of moves here. More like thousands. And Sacramento County specifically “saw a 70% increase in the number of move-ins from San Francisco County in 2020.”

Then again… (because you knew there had to be another rebuttal. The back-and-forth never stops), California Democrat lawmakers have introduced a bill to make major alterations to in-state fracking operations. Critics like Assembly Member Vince Fong of the fracking-heavy Kern County says it would not only devastate his community but “also make things more expensive in California” in general “at a time when it’s already expensive to live and work in our state…”

Meanwhile, over on the other side of the country, New York could be about to hike taxes on millionaires. If it does, it’s upper-class will be paying the highest income rate in the nation.

Knowing all of that, here’s my dead-serious current advice concerning our investing prospects: Stay the course, people.

We didn’t survive 2020 just to let 2021 get us down! So let’s keep evaluating possibilities in light of the bigger picture.

The World According to Commercial Real Estate

While everyone debates what in the country is going on between former state giants and up-and-comers, the REITs in our coverage universe just keep doing what they’re doing. And what they’re doing is largely paving the way for more growth.

Global Net Lease (GNL)announced acquisition pipeline plans for about $258 million at an 8.5% going-in cap rate with average remaining lease terms of 19.4 years. It also says it’s collected 99% of original cash rent due for the first quarter.
Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE) will be purchasing seven retail properties in various U.S. cities for $56 million from CTO Realty Growth (CTO) that are already net-leased to leading national retailers in defensive industries.
Vici Properties (VICI) saw S&P affirm its BB issuer credit rating with a revised outlook from stable to positive.

Note the “largely” qualifier up above, however. There are still subsectors that are struggling significantly and therefore need to be treated with caution. In particular, The GEO Group (GEO) has officially suspended its dividend payments in order to protect its cash flow.

And its competitor, CoreCivic (CXW), is doing its best to deal with the fact that the U.S. Marshals will not be renewing a current contract for its Northeast Ohio Correctional Center.

Considering how both news broke this morning, I expect to see these private prison companies on the punished list by the end of the day.

(Source: The Daily REITBeat)

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

View all my Posts

Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

Cryptocurrency Makes Its Commercial Real Estate Debut

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

The California/New York and Bubble Debates Continue

Brad Thomas

467 postsApril 7, 2021

Featured Articles

The Great Housing Market Migration Is VERY Interesting

Let Dividends Help You Deal With Disappointment In The Stock Market

Amazon Wants to Ask What Ails You

Wall Street’s Workforce Crisis Should Be Taken Seriously

Santa Claus Has Left the Building

The California/New York and Bubble Debates Continue

467 postsApril 7, 2021

REIT Mutual Funds

REIT ETFs

Not All Dividends Are the Same